The number of people flowing across regions nationwide is 2.204 billion, the number of domestic tourists is 826 million, and the domestic tourism revenue is 753.43 billion yuan... Recently, the statistics on the travel, tourism, consumption and other aspects of China's Mid Autumn Festival National Day holiday have become the focus of foreign media reports. Against the background of increasingly obvious signs of economic recovery in China, foreign media generally believe that this round of holiday consumption boom provides new evidence for the resilience, potential and vitality of China's economy.
"The most prosperous golden week" highlights the growth momentum
In late September, foreign media predicted that the 8-day Mid Autumn National Day holiday would be the second most important holiday in China after the Spring Festival, which would help boost the economy. If this holiday can bring about consumption growth, the positive spillover effect in the fourth quarter of this year will help China's economy reach or exceed the expected growth target.
Now, the Mid Autumn Festival National Day holiday has come to an end, and various fresh data have outlined the hot scene of this holiday. Many foreign media believe that in this "hottest golden week in recent five years", the strong demand of Chinese people for tourism, travel and consumption not only reflects the vitality and potential of the Chinese market, but also highlights the strong domestic demand power of the Chinese economy.
Reuters reported that during the Mid Autumn Festival National Day holiday, consumption in hotels, restaurants and other areas has been closely watched. According to China's official data, the average consumption of a single trip during this holiday reached 912.1 yuan. In contrast, the National Day holiday in 2019 is 7 days, and the average travel cost is 830.8 yuan. The news agency quoted Chinese media reports that 826 million domestic tourists traveled this holiday, an increase of 71.3% year on year in comparable terms, and 4.1% in comparable terms compared with 2019; Domestic tourism revenue reached 753.43 billion yuan, up 129.5% year on year on a comparable basis, and up 1.5% year on year on a comparable basis.
Latin America News Agency noted that China's domestic consumption potential has been fully released. The news agency quoted data released by Haikou Customs, saying that in the first six days of the holiday, the duty-free sales of outlying islands in Hainan Province were about 1.01 billion yuan, up 94.2% year on year. 130000 people went duty-free shopping, an increase of 120% over the same period in 2022.
Forbes' website also cited the consumption data of the Mid Autumn Festival National Day holiday released by Meituan, pointing out that this is the most prosperous golden week in China in recent years. The average daily retail consumption in China has increased by 153% over the same period in 2019, of which the consumption of meals in the hall has increased by 254% over 2019.
Bloomberg believes that this holiday is a sign that China's economy continues to recover - people are more willing to spend in China's major cities. Citing the research report of economists from Citibank Group, the news agency said that Chinese tourists began to "pursue high-quality holiday experience and a better lifestyle, rather than the traditional sea of people sightseeing". In addition, more and more tourists choose self driving tours. According to the data of the Ministry of Transport, during this holiday, the national expressways maintained a high level of operation, and the total traffic volume of expressways reached 487 million vehicles.
"The large flow of more than 2 billion people during the Mid Autumn National Day holiday shows the driving force of China's economic growth". According to the report of the South Korean Asia Economic Journal, some analysts believe that this is a sign of China's sustained economic recovery, indicating a strong endogenous driving force of China's economy.
The policy effect is accumulating and boosting confidence
According to the website of Frankfurt Report, the tourism boom is regarded as a sign of economic recovery. The Mid Autumn Festival National Day holiday comes at a critical time. The main driving force of China's economic growth is changing, and consumption is expected to play a greater role in the future. In view of the recent stabilizing economic data, some observers and analysts believe that the trough of China's economy has passed.
Bloomberg quoted experts as saying that the Mid Autumn Festival National Day holiday is an important boost for the world's second largest economy. China's economic growth model is based on domestic consumption. Marvin Chen, strategist of Bloomberg Information Research, believes that the consumption data of the Mid Autumn Festival National Day holiday makes the market more confident. "I believe that demand is stabilizing, which may help boost the confidence of consumers and the service industry.".
Foreign media believe that, in addition to the "hot" holiday economy, a series of latest economic data also show that China's economy has improved after the government increased its efforts to stimulate consumption.
"According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China, the purchasing managers' index (PMI) of China's manufacturing industry in September was 50.2%, up 0.5 percentage point from the previous month, returning to the expansion range." Pakistan's "Dawn News" TV channel reported that China's manufacturing PMI resumed expansion for the first time in six months in September, This data and other recent economic indicators indicate that China's economy is recovering.
The website of Singapore's Lianhe Morning Post reported that the report released by the China Federation of Commerce on October 9 showed that China's retail industry prosperity index (CRP I) in October was 51.3%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, hitting a new high in nearly a year. According to the analysis of the China Federation of Commerce, with the gradual implementation of a number of policies and measures to stabilize the economy and promote development in China, and driven by the peak consumption season during the Mid Autumn National Day holiday, Chinese retail enterprises have a good expectation of the boom in October.
The website of the German News Television Channel and the website of the German Voice Radio also believe that China's economy is sending growth signals again. Citing the opinion of Zhou Hao, chief economist of Guotai Jun'an International, the report said: "The manufacturing PMI and good industrial profit data show that China's economy has gradually bottomed out and recovered." Zhao Qinghe, senior statistician of the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics, pointed out that in September, with the accumulation of policy effects, the positive factors in China's economic operation are increasing.
Many foreign media pay attention to the strong policy support behind the impressive economic data. The Wall Street Journal of the United States reported that China's relevant departments have launched a series of stimulus measures to boost confidence and promote growth.
Reuters also pointed out that in recent months, China's policy makers have announced a series of measures aimed at supporting economic growth, including measures to lower the bank reserve ratio, lower the housing loan interest rate and further support private enterprises.
Still a major contributor to global growth
Recently, many international financial institutions have raised their expectations for China's economic growth.
Citigroup recently raised its forecast for China's economic growth this year from 4.7% to 5%, citing the stabilization of China's economic indicators and the recent policies and measures of the Chinese government. According to the latest research report of Citigroup, the trend of China's economy has significantly exceeded expectations. As the economic growth trend heats up, the market is concerned about whether China's endogenous demand will continue to rise.
ANZ also raised China's economic growth forecast by 20 basis points to 5.1%. Ma Weilin, president of ANZ Institutional Banking Group, said that he was optimistic about China's economic prospects.
While focusing on the strong growth momentum of China's holiday economy, the website of the Wall Street Journal predicted that China's economy would be healthier in the second half of this year. According to the report, the data in August has shown that Chinese consumers are more willing to spend money on cars and other aspects of consumption, and are also more willing to spend money on travel; The unemployment rate in urban survey declined slightly, and bank credit was extended more quickly. The data since September has continued a series of positive signals for China's economy. According to the website, this brings a glimmer of hope to the global economy when consumers and enterprises are in financial straits due to interest rate hikes in Europe and the United States.
According to the Trade and Development Report 2023 issued by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, China's economy will show resilience in economic recovery and growth in 2023. At the same time, compared with other large economies, China has more room for fiscal policy to meet challenges. Ke Ruizhi, Director of the Division of Globalization and Development Strategy of the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, pointed out that "China's economy will grow 10 to 12 times faster than the euro area in 2023, and China will still be the main contributor to global growth in 2023."
The website of Chile's Third Edition Times recently published an article entitled "Never Stop Engine". Juan Estevan Musalem, President of Chile China Chamber of Commerce, said in the article that for a period of time, some foreign media often hyped the argument that "the Chinese miracle seems to have ended". However, judging from the experience of the Zhizhong Chamber of Commerce, he does not agree with this view. "We are constantly witnessing Chilean enterprises' interest in establishing ties with China and China's increasing investment in Chile. China has been making contributions to global development, including Chile's development. Since the beginning of this year, China has restarted a series of forums, exhibitions and trade fairs, demonstrating its lasting interest in economic openness and international cooperation."
